THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS AND OH/TN
VALLEYS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OZARKS...OHIO VALLEY...AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. OTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY PREVALENT CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW OVERSPREADING THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES. ACROSS THIS
REGION...DEEP CONVECTION/TSTMS INCLUDING SOME SEVERE WILL BE
SEMI-FOCUSED AHEAD OF AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. TSTMS
WILL ALSO REMAIN COMMON ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA/GREAT BASIN
INTO ORE ON THE VICINITY OF A DAMPENING UPPER RIDGE.
...OZARKS AND OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN MCS...OR AT LEAST THE OUTFLOW/CLOUD
REMNANTS THEREOF...WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/LOWER-MIDDLE OH RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. PARTICULARLY ON THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN FRINGES OF THIS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY...SURFACE-BASED
STORM DEVELOPMENT/MATURATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY AND OZARKS NEAR/AHEAD OF A
SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH 1500-2500
J/KG OF MLCAPE IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THE STRONGEST
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL RESIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE...BUT 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELLS
ASIDE FROM A MORE PREVALENT MODE OF SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/LINE
SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED BOWS. DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
::::TN WX TASK FORCE SPOTTER NOTIFICATION::::
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW EVENING AND OUR COMMUNICATION'S CHANNELS WILL BE OPERATING.
