DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT SAT OCT 04 2014
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN AR ACROSS TN ...NRN
MS...AND SRN KY...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN
ARKANSAS INTO TENNESSEE AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY
WITH A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT FROM OK INTO AR AND ACROSS WRN TN AND
KY BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
HELP TRANSPORT 60S F DEWPOINTS NWD BENEATH COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND AMPLE SHEAR FOR
SEVERE STORMS GIVEN UPWARD FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
...AR...NRN MS...TN...SRN KY...
A SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AND BACK DURING THE DAY WHICH
WILL AID IN A NWD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE TOWARD THE WEAK COLD FRONT.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN E-W ORIENTED ZONE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO THE NIGHT.
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. A FEW BOWS COULD ALSO DEVELOP WHICH
WOULD TRAVEL ESEWD OVERNIGHT INTO NRN MS AND PERHAPS AL.
THE NAM SOLUTION INDICATES THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT
HAIL...HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PRECISE LOCATION
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS.
