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TENNESSEE WEATHER TASK FORCE
Wednesday December 23rd, 2015 :: 10:55 a.m. CST

Alert

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS FORECAST FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS OF
IL/IND...WRN AND CNTRL KY....SERN MO....ERN AR...WRN AND MIDDLE
TN....NRN MS AND FAR NWRN AL...

.SUMMARY...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS FORECAST TODAY
INTO TONIGHT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR A FEW
INTENSE...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE
INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

...OH VALLEY INTO THE TN AND LOWER-MS VALLEYS...

MULTIPLE BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AS OF MID
MORNING FROM SRN IL TO CNTRL AR WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING
FORCED BY A COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL WARM THERMAL AND MOISTURE
ADVECTIONS...AND THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS/DCVA DOWNSTREAM OF THE MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. WHILE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...POLEWARD FLUXES OF HEAT AND MOISTURE ALONG A
BROADENING/STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ WILL ALLOW FOR THE AIR MASS TO
DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORMS. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 250-500 J/KG ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO AS
HIGH AS 1500-2500 J/KG OVER THE LOWER-MS VALLEY WHERE RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING
WILL RESIDE.

LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
EARLIER DATA IN SUGGESTING THAT THE BOWING STRUCTURE OVER SERN
MO/NERN AR WILL CONTINUE NEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER WITH AN ATTENDANT
RISK FOR POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND EMBEDDED
TORNADOES GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR. FARTHER SW OVER ERN AR INTO WRN TN AND NRN MS...THE
FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WHERE THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW
INTENSE...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES. THIS CONVECTIVE REGIME
--FEATURING REGENERATIVE/BACK BUILDING STORMS-- WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO LOWER-MS VALLEY WHERE A CONTINUED
RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST.

Address/Location
TENNESSEE WEATHER TASK FORCE
3970 Coles Ferry Pike
Lebanon, TN 37087

Contact
Emergency: 9-1-1
Non-emergencies: 615-450-2768

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