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000 FXUS64 KOUN 042323 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 623 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016 .DISCUSSION... The 00Z aviation discussion follows.... && .AVIATION... Isolated strong/severe TSRA will continue until a few hours after sunset--mainly over north-central Oklahoma. Winds west of a dryline (located approximately KAVK-KCSM-KHBR-KLTS-F05 at 2300Z) will become generally light and variable after sunset. Elsewhere, 10-15 kt winds from the S-SE will continue through the period. Winds should be somewhat lighter on Wednesday. There will be another chance of TSRA tomorrow afternoon and evening (mainly in the general vicinity of I-44), but chances are currently too low to include in the TAFs. CmS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016/ DISCUSSION...

Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop along the dryline late this afternoon. Various convective-allowing models (HRRR/HRRRX/4KM NAM) are persistent in discrete supercells developing across southwest Oklahoma and moving northeastward into central Oklahoma. Analysis of the HRRR indicates localized backing/increased convergence along a dryline bulge could be a factor for convective iniation in the models. Visible satellite imagery indicates a possible perturbation/ascent across western north Texas/southwest Oklahoma which might be aiding in pressure falls/localized backing. There is some evidence of this perturbation on the 700 mb flow. Vertical wind shear will be more than sufficient for supercells with potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. By around 00Z, low- level (0-1 km) vertical wind shear (~20 knots), MLLCLs (<1 km), and critical angles (~90 degrees) will result in sufficient environment for potential tornadogenesis with any supercells. Tomorrow, at least isolated showers/storms will be possible with a moist, conditionally unstable airmass still in place. Coverage/confidence for storms is low with no significant forcing. Coverage may increase overnight as isentropic ascent increases. By late Thursday into Thursday night, a seasonably strong cold front will progress from northwest to southeast across Oklahoma/western north Texas. Severe weather will be possible; however, because of linear forcing along the cold front, the primary hazards will be gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Lingering showers/storms will be possible Friday morning across southern Oklahoma/western north Texas. Much drier/cooler air is expected in the front's wake on Friday and Saturday. Many locations will drop into the 40Fs by Saturday morning, and with dew points dropping into the 30Fs and light winds, some locations across northwest Oklahoma may drop into the upper 30Fs. By Sunday, a shortwave trough may increase the chance of showers, especially northwest Oklahoma. The forecast becomes more uncertain beyond Sunday as the GFS and ECMWF become somewhat out of phase across the Southern Plains. However, a general pattern of quasi- zonal flow with embedded shortwaves suggests seasonable temperatures with at least a low chance of rain. Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 66 88 69 87 / 40 10 30 30 Hobart OK 57 88 68 87 / 10 10 20 30 Wichita Falls TX 67 92 69 90 / 20 10 30 20 Gage OK 49 86 58 87 / 0 0 10 30 Ponca City OK 63 89 69 87 / 60 10 40 40 Durant OK 71 89 69 88 / 20 10 20 10 && .OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... OK...None. TX...None. && 11/23/23