Full Notification

***REMEMBER THE 4 P'S***

With the upcoming lower temperatures, we ask that you dont forget about your "PIPES-PEOPLE-PETS-PLANTS".

SEE THE BELOW FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR OUR AREA.

Not everyone will see the potential for drizzle, flurries, or freezing drizzle. The area we are concerned with is west of I-35 and south of a line from Hillsboro to Comanche.

We continue to look for the long advertised cold air to make its way into North and Central Texas. The forecast for a drastically falling temperatures remains on track for the entire area. There appears to be a small window of opportunity in our southwest and southern counties for drizzle / freezing drizzle / flurries late Wednesday nigh through Noon Thursday. Areas of drizzle will not be across our entire area of forecast responsibility, yet the entire area will see drastically colder temperatures when the second front moves through. The first front moved through this morning, giving us north winds, cloudy skies, and a few areas of drizzle/fog. Please see the attached PDF for additional graphics and details.

Threats/Hazardous Weather Types
The threats/hazardous weather types are (in order of likelihood):
-Cold Temperatures
-Strong North winds dropping wind chill values lower than 20 degrees
-Light glaze of ice on elevated surfaces (south and southwest)

The primary areas we are concerned about are:

Cold: everywhere
Drizzle, Flurries, Freezing Drizzle: South of a line from Comanche to Hillsboro & west of Interstate 35.

Expected Timing
Timing of drizzle or flurries only applies to area of concern in our southern and western areas.
Forecast Confidence


FAQ
Is drizzle / flurries / freezing drizzle guaranteed? No.
Is there a possibility of any ice or snow farther north that you think? We currently think cold air will move south much faster than any computer forecast is showing. Therefore, the shallow cold air will likely be to the south, and not to the north.

Why isn't there a Winter Storm Watch or Winter Weather Advisory out? Our forecast confidence is too low at this point. We think the glaze of ice is in the realm of possibility, but not yet certain.
How long will the cold weather last? This will be a short period of very cold temperatures. We will be back in the 50s by the weekend.
When will the next email update be sent? We will send another email before Noon on Wednesday, December 7th.

Cold air will make its way into North and Central Texas by late Wednesday. There is a possibility of impacts to bridges, overpasses, and trees in areas west of I-35 and south of a line from Comanche to Hillsboro late Wednesday night through Noon Thursday. Areas to the north do not appear to have the necessary moisture to allow for impacts. You may see different weather model output of snow accumulations. We think these models are too slow with the cold air and are not placing features in the right spots.

Alternate Possibilities

What we are certain of
-Cold is on its way
-Strong winds expected with the second cold front: North at 10-20 with higher gusts.
-Upper level system will move across Central Texas
-Precipitation, if any, will be light
-Impacts from frozen precipitation limited to elevated surfaces

What we are not certain about:
-Amount of moisture for preciptation
-Will the wind help or hurt? Strong winds could dry out the low levels slightly, or could allow temperatures to fall faster than forecast
We believe any impacts from this system will be highly localized. The ground temperatures are still relatively warm, and anything that falls from the clouds is not expected to be heavy enough to overcome the difference. Any area of drizzle should be watched where the temperature drops below 30 degrees.

The Red Oak Police Department asks that you stay warm this holiday season and please call upon us if you need us!