Full Notification

We remain in an extended period of very warm and dry conditions.  Little change to forecast through Saturday.
 
Through Friday:
Red Flag Warning to be issued for 1am Thursday to 10pm Friday for Most of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties for Widespread Critical Conditions  
 
Elevated to Briefly Critical Fire Weather Conditions over Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties
·  High confidence in moderate to strong Santa Ana event and critical conditions
·  Peak LAX-DAG Gradient between -6.0 and -9.0 mb.
·  Los Angeles and Ventura Counties: Peak gusts 45-65 mph. (High Wind Warning + Wind Advisory)  
Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties: Peak gusts 20-40 mph.
·  Widespread minimum humidities 2-9%
Poor overnight recoveries 10-20% nearly everywhere (windiest places staying below 10%)
·  High temperatures 87-97 degrees common. 
Heat Advisories may be issued
·  Environment favorable for extreme fire growth and behavior. 
·  Compared to the recent October 10-11 event (produced the Saddleridge Fire)
Similar winds, humidity, and duration
Temperatures 10 degrees warmer and much drier leading up to the event.
Expect similar to more severe conditions
Friday Night through Saturday:
 
Elevated Fire Weather Conditions

• Continued dry in mountains and valleys.
  Minimum humidities 5-10%.  Overnight recoveries 10-25%.
• Continued warm.  Highs 83-93 common.
• Much weaker winds. Northeast winds 8-15 mph with gusts 20-30 mph through Sat morning.
  Onshore flow 8-15 mph afternoon and evening (most locations).

• Computer projections vary drastically, between
  a scenario with moderate Santa Ana wind event and critical fire weather conditions
  and a scenario with scattered showers and no wind.
• Either scenario is just as likely as the other, including one in between.
• Please stay up to date with the latest forecasts throughout the week.