Full Notification

Isolated to Scattered Dry Thunderstorms Today 8/23/20 through Monday 8/24/20. National Weather Service - SF Bay Area/Monterey Issued: 10:15 AM Sunday, August 23, 2020 Point of Contact:  24/7 OPS - EM: 831-656-1717 | Media: 831-656-1724

Key Points - Expected Impacts
 

• Red Flag Warning for dry thunderstorms for today through Monday
• Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms for today through Monday
• Any thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds
• Any dry lightning could start additional fires

Changes From Previous Briefing
Highlighted in yellow, third issuance  Confidence and Details

Entire San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast
	MODERATE Confidence	Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms today through tomorrow. Timing and coverage.
	Details: Isolated dry thunderstorms could develop this morning, but have moderate to high confidence that the main event will start this afternoon extending through tomorrow morning. Expect scattered thunderstorms to lift northward along the Central Coast this afternoon, working from south to north, arriving near the North Bay this evening and continuing through the overnight hours. Dry conditions at low levels will make precipitation from any resulting thunderstorms highly unlikely. Although some light rainfall may be possible, wetting rains are not anticipated. These thunderstorms may produce gusty and erratic winds, creating significant issues for the current fires impacting the region. Any dry lightning could start additional fires.

  Weather Summary
The remnant low, moisture, and elevated instability from former Hurricane Genevieve will continue to lift across the Central Coast and Bay Area today and tonight. The remnant low is still approximately 380 miles south southwest of Monterey this morning.  However, some of the outer cloud bands are already bringing some high clouds to the region, and we are starting to see thunderstorms develop between Point Conception and Pismo Beach.  These thunderstorms will continue to move north throughout the day today.   
Most likely scenario:  Although some isolated thunderstorms may be possible this morning, expect the greatest threat of scattered thunderstorms to develop this afternoon across the Central Coast, and slowly spread northward this evening and during the overnight hours.
Worst case scenario:  This event will be similar to last weekend’s event.
Best case scenario:  Increased gusty and erratic winds and cloud cover.
Although these thunderstorms may produce some rain, wetting rains are not anticipated with these storms, given the extremely dry layer.  These thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds.  Wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph will be possible, and higher gusts cannot be ruled out.  These erratic and gusty winds will likely cause erratic fire behavior on existing fires and fires may have the potential to become wind driven.  In addition, dry lightning also has the potential to cause additional fires.    
For the latest forecast updates, visit www.weather.gov/BayArea
 
For all current watch/warning/advisories, https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/hazardSummary/?wfo=MTR